The maths of El Gordo, no drama: expected return per ticket, probability of each prize and what the tax office keeps. Data for the draw held every 22 December.
| Total spend | – |
| Expected return (70.1% of stake) | – |
| Expected loss | – |
| Chance of winning something | – |
| Chance of the first prize | – |
Expected return = the statistical average over millions of tickets. Most prizes (≈2 out of 3) are refunds: getting your money back is not "winning".
| Prize | Amount per ticket | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| El Gordo (1st) | €400,000 | 0.001% (1/100,000) |
| 2nd prize | €125,000 | 0.001% |
| 3rd prize | €50,000 | 0.001% |
| 4th prize (×2) | €20,000 | 0.002% |
| 5th prize (×8) | €6,000 | 0.008% |
| La Pedrea (×1,794) | €100 | 1.794% |
| Refund (reintegro) | €20 | 9.999% |
Plus approximations, hundreds and two-digit endings (€5 per euro played) — the full sum gives the 70.1% return. Total prizes 2026: €2,870 M (70% of a €4,100 M emission, 205 series of 100,000 numbers).
A ticket costs €20 and its expected prize value is €14.02: an average loss of €5.98 per ticket, 29.9% of the stake. That is the statistical margin of the game — the best "return" among big lotteries, but negative all the same.
15.3% of numbers win something, but two thirds of those cases are refunds (you get your €20 back). The chance of actually winning money (more than you paid) is 5.3%, and the first prize is 0.001%: one in 100,000.
The €400,000 first prize per ticket is taxed 20% only above €40,000: about €328,000 net. Prizes of €40,000 or less (5th prize, pedreas…) are exempt. Check current rules with the Spanish Tax Agency (AEAT).
No: every ticket has the same expected value (€0.701 per euro), so playing €100 keeps the same 30% average loss. What rises linearly is the chance of winning something (thanks to refunds and pedreas), not the profitability.
Prize structure and probabilities: the Sorteo Extraordinario de Navidad tables (direct and indirect prizes, refunds), stable since 2011 and detailed with the full expected-value calculation in Wikipedia (Spanish Christmas Lottery); the draw is organized and published by Loterías y Apuestas del Estado. 2026 draw: 205 series, €4,100 M emission, 70% destined to prizes.
Calculation: expected value = Σ (prize × probability) per ticket = €0.701 per euro played. Chance of at least one prize with N distinct numbers ≈ 1 − (1 − 0.1533)^N. Prizes before tax; 20% withholding on the portion above €40,000 per prize (AEAT).
Gambling is for adults only (18+). Play responsibly: these numbers describe the average of a game of chance, not your outcome. Informational tool, not advice; see terms of use.